Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 09-24-2014
Noontime markets have recovered from the morning doldrums to a more respectable green showing on falling volume as the HFT computers push the averages upwards.
By noon the averages were climbing, but a persistent presence of bearish investors have slowed the ascent to now a sideways trading in a very narrow zone. The past 2 sessions have worried me in that they haven’t gone down as predicted, nor have they moved back up.
Sometimes sideways means consolidation before moving upwards again but in an already oversold condition ($NYMO below) we should be melting back up ‘nicely’ and that hasn’t happened.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday and the short-term market direction meter is bullish. We remain mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned significantly and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at +5.06. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 72 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The ‘Sheeples’ always seem to get it wrong.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 25.44. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -71.65. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing.
The DOW at 12:00 is at 17148 up 93 or 0.54%.
The SP500 is at 1992 up 10 or 0.48%.
SPY is at 198.95 up 0.94 or 0.47%.
The $RUT is at 1126 up 7 or 0.65%.
NASDAQ is at 4541 up 32 or 0.71%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4081 up 30 or 0.73%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 13.94 down 0.99 or -6.63%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 92.11 (resistance) and 91.14 (support) today. The session bias is neutral, very volatile and is currently trading up at 91.69. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1226.69 earlier to 1216.63 and is currently trading down at 1217.70. The current intra-session trend is negative and volatile. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.052 rising from 3.023 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 85.22 and 84.70 and is currently trading up at 85.15, the bias is currently positive. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 has been broken.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary