Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 09-23-2014
Noontime markets have remained flat and directionless since this mornings opening. Absolutely little volatility as the volume remains low to anemic.
By 12 pm There were signs of a weak market trying to climb, but that is seen as HFT computer work. I would be cautious as it was expected to have down (-0.30%) day and that is not happening.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday and the short-term market direction meter is bullish. We remain mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned significantly and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at +6.64. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 74 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The ‘Sheeples’ always seem to get it wrong.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 25.51. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -58.23. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing.
The DOW at 12:00 is at 17141 down 32 or -0.18%.
The SP500 is at 1992 down 2 or -0.11%.
SPY is at 198.59 down 0.26 or -0.13%.
The $RUT is at 1129 down 0.31 or -0.03%.
NASDAQ is at 4530 up 2 or 0.05%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4065 up 4 or 0.10%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 14.08 up 0.39 or 2.78%. Neutral Movement
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The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been neutral and the current bias is flat and mixed.
WTI oil is trading between 91.85 (resistance) and 90.78 (support) today. The session bias is very volatile and trending up and is currently trading up at 91.81. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1235.62 earlier to 1220.28 and is currently trading up at 1223.70. The current intra-session trend is negative. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.036 falling from 3.064 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.80 and 84.46 and is currently trading up at 84.77, the bias is currently neutral and volatile. (Chart Here)
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary