Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 09-22-2014
Premarkets were down -0.2% and opened at the same level in the absence of 8:30 US financial reports.
By 10 am the averages had melted down to -0.4% on moderate volume and started a slow sea-saw off the morning opening lows to where no one knows. This sessions crystal ball is exceptionally cloudy.
Reporting at 10 am shows the US US Existing Home Sales August (M/M) came in at -1.8% vs the 1.0% that was estimated; 2.4% prior and the US US Existing Home Sales for August came in at 5.05M vs the 5.20M estimated; 5.15M prior. Markets appear to have descended fractionally, but more or less have taken the news in stride.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening and the short-term market direction meter is bearish. We remain mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned significantly and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 8.50. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 77 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The ‘Sheeples’ always seem to get it wrong.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 25.78. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -28.53. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 17244 down 33 or -0.19%.
The SP500 is at 2002 down 9 or -0.42%.
SPY is at 199.85 down 0.87 or -0.44%.
The $RUT is at 1136 down 11 or -0.98%.
NASDAQ is at 4548 down 32 or -0.69%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4076 down 25 or -0.61%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 13.42 up 1.31 or 10.82%. Bearish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been net positive and the current bias is negative and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 91.92 (resistance) and 91.10 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 91.11. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold rose from 1208.96 earlier to 1217.85 and is currently trading up at 1215.20. The current intra-session trend is neutral and sideways. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.040 falling from 3.085 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.89 and 84.64 and is currently trading down at 84.80, the bias is currently neutral testing resistance. (Chart Here)
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary