Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 09-18-2014
Premarkets were up 0.3% and opened the same way. Volume is low and should be higher suggesting investors are still unsure of Mr. Markets ultimate direction. The DOW edged up to a new high (17247.44) while the SP500 came within a half point of its previous historic high (again) and backed off. Can we call this a double top or just a pause?
By 10 am the markets were all in green territory but sea-sawing is a sideways fashion. I would be cautious and expect a reversal at any time.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening and the short-term market direction meter is fractionally bullish. We remain mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned significantly and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 8.05. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 72 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The ‘Sheeples’ always seem to get it wrong.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 26.34. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -34.56. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing.
The DOW at 10:30 is at 17229 up 74 or 0.43%.
The SP500 is at 2008 up 7 or 0.33%.
SPY is at 201.46 up 0.71 or 0.35%.
The $RUT is at 1157 up 3 or 0.29%.
NASDAQ is at 4583 up 21 or 0.45%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4092 up 18 or 0.45%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.21 down 0.44 or -3.56%. Bullish to Neutral Movement
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The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been net positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 93.58 (resistance) and 92.58 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 92.73. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1226.23 earlier to 1216.64 and is currently trading up at 1223.50. The current intra-session trend is neutral. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.099 falling from 3.138 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.89 and 84.42 and is currently trading down at 84.43, the bias is currently negative. (Chart Here) >>>> There is a gap below between 83.92 and 83.79, watch out below as any rise is expected to be temporary.<<<<<<
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary