Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 09-18-2014
Dow set, yet again, a new high (17255.01) along with the SP500 (2011.79) on low volume suggesting the HFT algo computers are hard at work pushing the numbers higher. I am sure I am not alone when I say this bullishness just doesn’t fell right, but the trend is your friend until it isn’t.
By noon the averages were off fractionally from the morning highs trading sideways while volume fell to anemic levels. Just what does today’s session tell us remains to be seen, but there are a bunch of scared investors out there that are not sure what to do.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday and the short-term market direction meter is fractionally bearish. We remain mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned significantly and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 8.01. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 72 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The ‘Sheeples’ always seem to get it wrong.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 26.25. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -34.56. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing.
The DOW at 12:00 is at 17243 up 86 or 0.50%.
The SP500 is at 2009 up 8 or 0.38%.
SPY is at 201.54 up 0.79 or 0.39%.
The $RUT is at 1159 up 5 or 0.45%.
NASDAQ is at 4586 up 24 or 0.53%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4093 up 20 or 0.48%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.08 down 0.56 or -4.43%. Bullish to Neutral Movement
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The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been net positive and the current bias is positive and trading sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 93.58 (resistance) and 92.04 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 92.19. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold rose from 1216.44 earlier to 1228.41 and is currently trading up at 1227.60. The current intra-session trend is positive. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.099 falling from 3.138 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.89 and 84.34 and is currently trading down at 84.39, the bias is currently negative. (Chart Here) >>>> There is a gap below between 83.92 and 83.79, watch out below as any rise is expected to be temporary.<<<<<<
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary