Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 09-18-2014
New highs for the large caps, but on really low volume, not the volatility I was expecting. DOW reached up to 17275.37, closed at 17265.99 and the SP500 melted up to 2012.34 and closed at 2011.36 – all new highs.
By 4 pm new highs along with new highs for the closing numbers for the large caps. We will see where Mr Market is going to take us – stay tuned.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close and the short-term market direction meter is fractionally bearish. We remain mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned significantly and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 8.21. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 72 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The ‘Sheeples’ always seem to get it wrong.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 26.00. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -34.56. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17266 up 109 or 0.64%.
The SP500 is at 2011 up 9.79 or 0.49%.
SPY is at 201.83 up 1.07 or 0.53%.
The $RUT is at 1159 up 5 or 0.47%.
NASDAQ is at 4593 up 31 or 0.68%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4103 up 30 or 0.72%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.04 down 0.61 or -4.82%. Bullish to Neutral Movement
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The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been net positive and the current bias is positive and trading sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 93.58 (resistance) and 91.86 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 91.94. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold rose from 1216.44 earlier to 1228.41 and is currently trading up at 1225.80. The current intra-session trend is positive and trading sideways. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.094 falling from 3.138 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.89 and 84.34 and is currently trading down at 84.41, the bias is currently negative and trading sideways. (Chart Here) >>>> There is a gap below between 83.92 and 83.79, watch out below as any rise is expected to be temporary.<<<<<<
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary