Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 09-17-2014
Premarkets were flat in spite of ‘not-so-good’ financial news this morning as most investors thought are concerned with the FMOC later today. The markets opened up and the DOW inched up fractionally to set a new high (17173.49) which from a chart perspective is nothing more than a double top. Nothing to see here, move along.
By 10 am the markets had climbed as high as there were going to until the FMOC minutes are released and then who know what is going to happen. Here is a thought.
The averages were and have been, artificially been raised by Fed liquidity and more recently, HFT algo computers. Yesterday we saw the averages pushed up when the prevalent thinking was they would be depressed so the powers to be could inflate prices after the Fed meeting and make a killing.
Now that they have been raised, the thinking is that the market will take a serious session dip today after the minutes are released and the crooks of Wall Street make another killing. We will see.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening and the short-term market direction meter is fractionally bearish. We remain mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned significantly and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at +7.49. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 71 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The ‘Sheeples’ always seem to get it wrong.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 25.78. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -40.56. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing.
The DOW at 10:30 is at 17159 up 28 or 0.16%.
The SP500 is at 2002 up 3 or 0.15%.
SPY is at 200.72 up 0.22 or 0.11%.
The $RUT is at 1157 up 6 or 0.53%.
NASDAQ is at 4557 up 4 or 0.08%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4064 down 3 or -0.07%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.70 down 0.03 or -0.24%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is elevated and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 94.00 (resistance) and 93.14 (support) today. The session bias is volatile, trending down and is currently trading up at 93.25. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1239.91 earlier to 1235.40 and is currently trading up at 1236.40. The current intra-session trend is neutral and volatile. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.142 falling from 3.154 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.29 and 84.07 and is currently trading down at 84.16, the bias is currently neutral. (Chart Here) >>>> There is a gap below between 83.92 and 83.79, watch out below as any rise is expected to be temporary.<<<<<<
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary