Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 09-16-2014
Unexpectedly the markets moved into positive territory after comments were made basically saying not to worry about the Fed upsetting the apple cart. The DOW set a new high at 17167.05 which the bears are quick to point out it is a double top (or triple top) on the lack of extraordinary volume, which the bulls point out is bullish.
By 4 pm the DOW was unable to make new closing high and a lot of bulls are sure they did the right thing buying into the market today ahead of the FMOC meeting.
Cnbc.com reports, ‘Fed Survey for September, finds the Street more optimistic on both economic growth and stocks and moving up its timetable for an interest rate hike. Bears and doves are out and the bulls and hawks are in.’
Respondents now see the Fed starting a rate-hike policy in June 2015, up a month from the previous survey and the second survey in a row that has seen more rapid rate-hike expectations.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close and the short-term market direction meter is strong bullish. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 7.26. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 71 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The ‘Sheeples’ always seem to get it wrong.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 25.89. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -62.16. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing. Protect thyself!
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17132 up 101 or 0.59%.
The SP500 is at 1999 up 15 or 0.75%.
SPY is at 200.54 up 1.50 or 0.75%.
The $RUT is at 1151 up 4 or 0.39%.
NASDAQ is at 4553 up 34 or 0.75%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4067 up 37 or 0.93%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.83 down 1.29 or -9.14%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is positive and trading sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 94.07 (resistance) and 91.52 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 93.72. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1242.60 earlier to 1232.55 and is currently trading down at 1236.20. The current intra-session trend is neutral. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.157 rising from 3.081 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.49 and 83.99 and is currently trading up at 84.22, the bias is currently neutral. (Chart Here) >>>> There is a gap below between 83.92 and 83.79, watch out below as any rise is expected to be temporary.<<<<<<
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary