Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 09-16-2014
Except for a brief dip at 11:30 the markets have continued to rise nicely. The fly in the financial ointment is that $RUT is flat and not going anywhere and that has never been a good sign. The volume levels have been low with an occasional burst of red and green spikes leading nowhere important.
By noon market manipulation seems to be the main thrust of the averages moving upwards as the HFT algo computers are hard at work. Caution!
It has become hard to believe the markets are going to react positively tomorrow after watching low volume melting upwards. However, the Wall Street Journal’s Fed-watcher, Jon Hilsenrath, dropped a rather large hint a short while ago that that the “considerable period” language will remain… We will see if this enough to keep the averages moving higher. I remain short-term bullish, but my chips for the day are in my pocket.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday and the short-term market direction meter is strong bullish. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 7.17. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 72 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The ‘Sheeples’ always seem to get it wrong.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 25.67. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -62.16. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing. Protect thyself!
The DOW at 12:30 is at 17129 up 98 or 0.58%.
The SP500 is at 1998 up 14 or 0.70%.
SPY is at 200.38 up 1.40 or 0.71%.
The $RUT is at 1149 up 2 or 0.20%.
NASDAQ is at 4540 up 21 or 0.47%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4054 up 25 or 0.61%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 13.39 down 0.73 or -5.17%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 93.81 (resistance) and 91.52 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 93.727. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1242.60 earlier to 1232.55 and is currently trading down at 1239.70. The current intra-session trend is positive. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.159 rising from 3.081 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.49 and 83.99 and is currently trading up at 84.06, the bias is currently negative. (Chart Here) >>>> There is a gap below between 83.92 and 83.79, watch out below as any rise is expected to be temporary.<<<<<<
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary