Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 09-15-2014
Volume remained low for the most part and trading was sideways as the small caps lead the decline. Not much will happen tomorrow as Wall Street awaits the FOMC meeting. I suspect the markets will be down tomorrow so they can zooooom up after the Fed Meeting on Wednesday. This casino market can be so predictable sometimes, but on the other hand I am not going to place a bet either.
JPM seems to think it will be a good idea to dump the dogs.
“…we anticipate that the start of US rate hikes will do damage to markets in the short term, but that there will be greater differentiation over a more medium term between liquid and less liquid assets.
In the short term, investors sell what they can, making liquid assets more vulnerable.” – JPMorgan
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close and the short-term market direction meter is fractionally bullish. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 7.23. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 71 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The ‘Sheeples’ always seem to get it wrong.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 25.91. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at –51.40. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to rise, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing.
According to StockTiming, Last week (09-8-2014) they reported that the $NYA Index was within just a few tenth’s of 1% from its all time high. Last Friday the $NYA Index was at 10911.39 which was 162.01 points lower than where it was on September 5th.
Last week, they commented that the Fed couldn’t afford to let the market die, so they were pumping in a lot of Liquidity to keep things up. By Friday, they had not pumped in enough so the Inflowing Liquidity levels were dropping.
While the level of Inflowing Liquidity was lower and down trending, it was still in positive territory so the Fed could still turn things back up. The liquidity expansion / contraction line is at ~10600.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17031 up 44 or 0.26%.
The SP500 is at 1984 down 1.41 or -0.07%.
SPY is at 199.05 down 0.15 or -0.07%.
The $RUT is at 1147 down 14 or -1.21%.
NASDAQ is at 4519 down 49 or -1.07%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4030 down 39 or -0.97%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 14.13 up 0.82 or 6.16%. Neutral Movement
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The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is down and trading sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 92.29 (resistance) and 89.88 (support) today. The session bias is trading up and is currently trading up at 91.84. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here)
– and –
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold rose from 1228.64 earlier to 1239.03 and is currently trading up at 1234.70. The current intra-session trend is neutral, quiet and sideways. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.086 falling from 3.105 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.54 and 84.29 and is currently trading up at 84.38, the bias is currently down, sideways and quiet. (Chart Here) >>>> There is a gap below between 83.92 and 83.79, watch out below as any rise is expected to be temporary.<<<<<<
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary