Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 09-12-2014
Markets closed down as rising Treasury yields and the prospect of next week’s Fed rate meeting made investors very nervous speculating that the Fed may increase interest rates sooner than what was anticipated at next weeks FMOC.
By 4 pm most traders had left the office and let the slow afternoon trading to the ‘Sheeples’ and algo computers. We are still at a cross-road.
I do expect a sell-off, just not the ‘BIG-ONE’ as some pundits are trying to promote. Read my weekend article tomorrow morning on why the ‘Bull Train Will Continue’ to move upwards.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close and the short-term market direction meter is bearish. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at +10.59. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 70 % Bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low. So the markets should go higher – right?
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 26.14. (BEARISH) (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -23.30. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24 is signaling a market reversal and it has started – which is short term bearish.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing. Protect thyself!
The DOW at 4:00 is at 16988 down 61 or -0.36%.
The SP500 is at 1986 down 12 or -0.60%.
SPY is at 199.09 down 1.17 or -0.58%.
The $RUT is at 1161 down 12 or -1.00%.
NASDAQ is at 4568 down 24 or -0.53%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4069 down 23 or -0.57%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 13.31 up 0.51 or 3.98%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is negative and trading sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 93.66 (resistance) and 91.96 (support) today. The session bias is negative, volatile and is currently trading up at 92.22. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1240.58 earlier to 1228.29 and is currently trading down at 1230.30. The current intra-session trend is negative, but trending higher. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.103 rising from 3.079 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.56 and 84.22 and is currently trading down at 84.37, the bias is currently neutral and very volatile. (Chart Here) >>>> There is a gap below between 83.92 and 83.79, watch out below as any rise is expected to be temporary.<<<<<<
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary