Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 09-11-2014
Wrong again in guessing what this casino market is going to do as the small caps end in the green with the DOW down 0.1%. Today’s increase can be attributed to the HFT algo computers if that is any consolidation and may not stick if tomorrow’s new is bad.
By 4 pm the large caps were mixed with the $NDX also in the red. Volume has been low to anemic all day as some investors think this is it for a correction and were buying back in.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close and our short-term market direction meter is pointing to the upside this afternoon. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at +10.10. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 67 % Bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 25.31. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -31.54. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24 is signaling a market reversal and apparently it has started – which is short term bearish.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing. Protect thyself!
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17049 down 20 or -0.12%.
The SP500 is at 1997 down 2 or -0.09%.
SPY is at 200.26 up 0.23 or 0.11%.
The $RUT is at 1172 up 7 or 0.63%.
NASDAQ is at 4592 up 5 or 0.12%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4093 down 2 or -0.06%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.80 down 0.08 or -0.362%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 93.41 (resistance) and 90.44 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 93.17. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1250.89 earlier to 1235.86 and is currently trading up at 1242.10. The current intra-session trend is net negative. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.094 falling from 3.114 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.49 and 84.22 and is currently trading down at 84.45, the bias is currently net neutral and quiet. (Chart Here) >>>> There is a gap below between 83.92 and 83.79, watch out below as any rise is expected to be temporary.<<<<<<
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary