Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 09-11-2014
The day of indecision! Markets open lower, rise, fall and then rise all on spurts of red and green volume.
By noon the averages were were mostly in the red with the $RUT the only major average in the green. The is an obvious tug o’war between the bulls and bears as the charts depict a sea-saw pattern of ups and downs. The prognosis of a market turn around is slim and suspect we will see a minor sell-off this afternoon.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday and our short-term market direction meter is pointing to the downside. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at +9.73. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 66 % Bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 25.25. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -31.54. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24 is signaling a market reversal and apparently it has started – which is short term bearish.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing. Protect thyself!
The DOW at 12:15 is at 17032 down 37 or -0.21%.
The SP500 is at 1993 down 3 or -0.16%.
SPY is at 199.81 down 0.25 or -0.12%.
The $RUT is at 1167 up 2 or 0.15%.
NASDAQ is at 4576 down 11 or -0.24%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4078 down 18 or -0.43%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 13.03 up 0.15 or 1.16%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is net negative and sea-sawing.
WTI oil is trading between 92.33 (resistance) and 90.44 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 91.84. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here) (Look at the 5H time scale.)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1250.89 earlier to 1235.86 and is currently trading up at 1235.70. The current intra-session trend is net negative and volatile. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.092 falling from 3.114 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.49 and 84.22 and is currently trading down at 84.36, the bias is currently net neutral and quiet. (Chart Here) >>>> There is a gap below between 83.92 and 83.79, watch out below as any rise is expected to be temporary.<<<<<<
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary