Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 09-08-2014
Afternoon markets recovered fractionally from the 2 pm lows as volume fell off allowing the HFT computers to push the averages back up somewhat. Crossroads remain as investor wonder where Mr. Market is going tomorrow.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 12.83. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 67 % Bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 24.69. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +6.92. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24 is signaling a market reversal and apparently it has started.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and that is another notch in the gun signaling that we might have another reversal very soon – at least to cover the gap below at 67.85.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17111 down 26 or -0.15%.
The SP500 is at 2002 down 6 or -0.31%.
SPY is at 200.66 down 0.52 or -0.26%.
The $RUT is at 1172 up 2 or 0.19%.
NASDAQ is at 4592 up 9 or 0.20%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4095 up 6 or 0.14%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.66 up 0.57 or 4.71%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive and flatting, the past 5 sessions have been flat and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 93.55 (resistance) and 91.81 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 93.19. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here) (Look at the 5H time scale.)
– and –
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1272.52 earlier to 1252.15 and is currently trading down at 1255.80. The current intra-session trend is sideways. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.184 falling from 3.208 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.48 and 83.79 and is currently trading up at 84.44, the bias is currently positive. (Chart Here) There is a gap below between 83.92 and 83.79, watch out below as this rise is expected to be temporary.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the ‘Follow‘ button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.
Real Time Market Numbers
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary