Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 08-14-2014
Markets marched, albeit slowly, up to new session highs from the dismal flat status we saw this morning.
By noon the were trending upwards, but I am not sure how much steam is left in today’s market. The volume has dried up and the HFT algo computers are the only traders it seems.
I do not think this market is out of the bears clutches just yet. The past 5 days is a good sign, but the march upwards is taking way too long and that is a concern. One note of short-term concern is that our proprietary market direction meter shows a distinct bearish signal which could signal the markets will retreat.
NEW YORK (AP) – The U.S. stock market crept higher Thursday following a mixed batch of corporate news. In Europe, investors brushed aside more worrying news on the economy and nudged markets up.
As of 12:10 p.m. Eastern time, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index was up six points, or 0.3 percent, to 1,953. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 41 points, or 0.2 percent, to 16,693 while the Nasdaq composite climbed 11 points, or 0.3 percent, to 4,445.
CISCO SLIPS: After the market closed Wednesday, Cisco Systems reported falling quarterly sales and profits. The technology company also announced plans to lay off 6,000 workers, roughly 8 percent of its workforce. Cisco’s stock dropped 53 cents, or 2 percent, to $24.67.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains below zero at -6.45. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators are starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 48 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +21.17. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan. It is around the area where it turns and start to descend, but any thing below 30 / 40 is a concern.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further. This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors.
The DOW at 12:30 is at 16688 up 37 or 0.22%.
The SP500 is at 1952 up 5 or 0.27%.
SPY is at 195.42 up 0.59 or 0.30%.
The $RUT is at 1143 up 1 or 0.12%.
NASDAQ is at 4444 up 10 or 0.21%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3958 up 9 or 0.22%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.79 down 0.11 or -0.85%. Neutral Movement
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The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is elevated and trading sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 97.58 (resistance) and 95.91 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 96.03. (Chart Here)
Brent Crude is trading between 105.09 (resistance) and 102.42 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 102.53. (Chart Here)
Gold rose from 1310.22 earlier to 1320.58 and is currently trading up at 1313.60. The current intra-session trend is neutral and volatile. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.086 falling from 3.119 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 91.75 and 81.45 and is currently trading up at 81.62, the bias is currently positive. (Chart Here)
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary