Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 08-12-2014
At 11 am there was a ‘minor’ sell-off taking the averages down to where they have been trading at the noon-time hour. Possible for the markets to close up but the aversion of the BTFDers to jump in and save the day seems to be what is holding the markets back. The bulls are hopeful some good news is going to save the day, in the meantime we sit in the middle of the crossroad like a bulls-eye on a target. Caution is out again.
Way to early to project a winner here and may be best to sit on ones hands.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains below zero at -9.51. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators are starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 42 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low.
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 58.1 % bullish with the status at Bear Confirmed. (Chart Here )
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 62.27. (Chart Here) Below support.
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 71.00. (Chart Here) Closed below support, nearing new support @ 69.
The Market Is Overpriced But The Correction Will Likely Be Shallow
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +6.06. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and it did today.
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 66.57. (Chart Here)
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further. This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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The DOW at 12:30 is at 16556 down 15 or -0.09%.
The SP500 is at 1934 down 3 or -0.14%.
SPY is at 193.61 down 0.20 or -0.10%.
The $RUT is at 1136 down 6 or -0.53%.
NASDAQ is at 4391 down 11 or -0.24%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3903 down 7 or -0.18%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 14.24 up 0.01 or 0.07%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net neutral, the past 5 sessions have been net neutral and the current bias is negative and sea-sawing.
WTI oil is trading between 97.94 (resistance) and 97.05 (support) today. The session bias is down and sideways and is currently trading up at 97.36.
Brent Crude is trading between 105.34 (resistance) and 103.91 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 104.11.
Gold rose from 1306.89 earlier to 1318.80 and is currently trading up at 1316.10. The current intra-session trend is positive.
Dr. Copper is at 3.156 falling from 3.189 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.73 and 81.58 and is currently trading down at 81.60, the bias is currently neutral.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary
