Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 08-12-2014
The problem with this particular session is that it could be depicted as good (bullish) or bad (bearish) in that not much happened one way or the other. It depends on how you want to read the ‘tea leaves’.
By 4 pm the trading was within a narrow trading range that erased yesterday’s gains, but didn’t revert to the slide of past sessions.
Well, so much for ‘Tuesday up days’ as this is the 2nd red one in a row.
US equity futures started to slide once German confidence data hit early in the morning (and Treasuries rallied modestly) but as the US opened, the ubiquitous “markets are open and I must buy’ rip hit… but didn’t last.
Stocks leaked lower but stopped as Europe closed (in a mirror of yesterday) but could not hold bounce gains as worries over Russia’s convoy weighed on markets late on.
The S&P and Dow end the day unch (Russell -0.5%, Trannies up 0.6%) on the week. As stocks old off, somewhat oddly, so did the US Dollar (on EUR strength – reptariation?), US Treasuries, gold and copper.
330RAMPCAPITAL turned up (well it is Tuesday), slammed VIX, and jammed stocks (except Russell) back to green (VWAP) but it didn’t hold. S&P futures volume was over 40% below average.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains below zero at -9.38. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators are starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 41 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +6.06. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and it did today.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the ‘Follow‘ button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 16561 down 9 or -0.06%.
The SP500 is at 1934 down 3 or -0.16%.
SPY is at 193.52 down 0.27 or -0.14%.
The $RUT is at 1133 down 9 or -0.78%.
NASDAQ is at 4389 down 12 or -0.27%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3905 down 5 or -0.13%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 14.13 down 0.10 or 0.70%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net neutral, the past 5 sessions have been net neutral and the current bias is negative and sea-sawing.
WTI oil is trading between 97.94 (resistance) and 96.89 (support) today. The session bias is down and sideways and is currently trading up at 97.33.
Brent Crude is trading between 105.34 (resistance) and 103.55 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 103.83.
Gold rose from 1306.89 earlier to 1318.80 and is currently trading down at 1310.50. The current intra-session trend is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 3.150 falling from 3.189 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.73 and 81.54 and is currently trading down at 81.6, the bias is currently negative.
Real Time Market Numbers
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary