Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 08-08-2014
Markets closed on an up note with the small cap closing mostly above the 50 DMA and the large caps closing above supports and critical DMA’s. Stocks end the day with moderate gains as Ukraine tensions are reduced somewhat.
By 4 pm the volume melted up to low from anemic and dismal giving hope to investors the worst is over. But I caution in that we are still in the middle of the crossroad praying we don’t get nipped by a financial 18 wheeler sailing by.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side (barely) at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, and remains below zero at -10.15. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators are starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 43 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -53.57. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50, but this time things may be different – where have I heard this before? Tuesday’s (8-5) numbers are definitely not a good sign, but today’s numbers show improvement.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further. This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Today’s numbers are bullish in that the support 65.35 has held.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16554 up 186 or 1.13%.
The SP500 is at 1932 up 22 or 1.15%.
SPY is at 192.96 up 2 or 1.16%.
The $RUT is at 1131 up 12 or 1.04%.
NASDAQ is at 4371 up 36 or 0.83%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 1888 up 30 or 0.78%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 15.77 down 0.89 or -5.34%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 98.42 (resistance) and 97.20 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 97.58.
Brent Crude is trading between 106.85 (resistance) and 104.66 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 104.75.
Gold fell from 1324.10 earlier to 1307.64 and is currently trading up at 1312.90. The current intra-session trend is down and sideways.
Dr. Copper is at 3.180 rising from 3.160 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.67 and 81.31 and is currently trading down at 81.46, the bias is currently down and volatile.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary