Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 08-04-2014
By noon the market is relatively quiet except for a small dippy-do around 11 am. The trend is fractionally downward and this should be what the session should look like. The rest of the week is in doubt as to direction, but the positives outweigh the negatives at this point.
I have been saying that we still have one more stab at the top and NOT to expect the markets to start trending down until AFTER September and maybe no real ‘correction’ until first quarter 2015.
That recent stock take-down, where the S&P 500 SPX -0.02% delivered its worst weekly performance in two years, undoubtedly sent a chill down many an investor’s spine.
But strategists were coming out of the woodwork on Monday to say, “Chill out, people.”
First up, Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer, and Kiran Ganesh, cross-asset strategist, at UBS Wealth Management:
“With U.S. GDP growth still on track, the Fed remaining accommodative and cash still on the sidelines, now is not the time for investors to head to the exit.”
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -3.62. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 44 % bearish and when it goes positive, watch out for the bottom to fall out. Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 60.6 % bullish with the status at Bear Confirmed. (Chart Here )
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -89.39. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50, but this time things may be different – where have I heard this before? The new support is ay ~-100.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
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The DOW at 12:15 is at 16485 down 8 or -0.05%.
The SP500 is at 1927 up 2 or 0.09%.
SPY is at 192.68 up 0.22 or 0.11%.
The $RUT is at 1114 down 1 or -0.08%.
NASDAQ is at 4366 up 13 or 0.30%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3898 up 18 or 0.46%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 16.22 down 0.81 or -4.76%. Neutral to Bearish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is flat and trending down.
WTI oil is trading between 98.33 (resistance) and 97.43 (support) today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading down at 97.95.
Brent Crude is trading between 105.66 (resistance) and 104.52 (support) today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading down at 105.19.
Gold fell from 1296.41 earlier to 12887.78 and is currently trading down at 1288.00. The current intra-session trend is trending down and volatile.
Dr. Copper is at 3.242 rising from 3.199 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.45 and 81.36 and is currently trading down at 81.44, the bias is currently sideways.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary