Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 08-01-2014
The premarkets were down -0.25% and were relatively active jumping up after the mixed not-so-good US financial’s reported this morning. The markets opened in the red but slowly recovered to flat status posting numbers in the green on moderate volume.
By 10 the ever so brief stint in the green was meet with more red as investors are convinced this may be the correction everyone has been talking about.
There is a lot going on in the World that may not be important singularly, but could cause a market threat combined and investors should be on high alert.
Key indicators fell into the ‘watch-out-below’ category at the opening this morning and may be a shot across the bow that further ‘melting’ down may be in the cards. I am not too concerned at this point and any additional correction may represent a solid buying opportunity if the averages bounce off the next support (see XLY below).
The likelihood of the markets returning to post new high remains relatively high for now and supports need to be watched carefully.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 0.05. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further. This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors should it remain there. The next green support line (chart below) is a good guess to where the correction is going to go if we continue melting down.
Bottom line here is that I have not seen any serious bears jumping out of the woods just yet, although I am VERY concerned that ANY minor correction could turn nasty in a heart beat. One significant signal would be daily losses in any of the major averages that go over the ‘magic’ 3 % and then you need to pay close attention to risk-off tactics. There hasn’t been a 10% correction in several years and some investors are becoming increasingly concerned an imminent correction is on the way.
It is still possible that Mr. Market is not through playing with the averages and even newer historical highs are a distinct possibility. Historically, accordingly to Eric Parnell, “major bull markets have almost never reached their final peak in a sideways grinding pattern. Instead, they have almost always peaked with flourish including one final crescendo toward a new all-time high before finally rolling over and succumbing to the forces of the new bear market”.
The longer 6 month outlook is now 35–65 sell and will remain bearish until we can see what the effects are in the Fed’s ‘Tapering’ game plan, Russia’s annexing game playing and of course the World’s newest player Iraq. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a lessor degree of reliability for the time being and watch what the Janet Yellen’s Fed does over the next couple of months.
It is the final ending of QE that worries me the most as many financial institution and emerging markets can not continue to push forward or upwards without the Fed’s ‘Market Viagra’. The debt stands at 4 trillion and will be at 5 trillion by the time the taper (October 2014) is completed and that is one hell of a debt that ‘someone’ has to pay. But, that is not all, Cris Sheridan writes in his article, What Happens When Quantitative Easing Ends, “Once liquidity starts to dry up at the end of this year it looks very likely that the yield on 10-year government bonds will go up. That will cause mortgage rates to go up… the property market to come down, a significant correction in the stock market, a negative wealth effect, less consumption and, I think, then the US will start moving back towards recession.”
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
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The DOW at 10:30 is at 16550 down 13 or -0.08%.
The SP500 is at 1933 up 2 or 0.11%.
SPY is at 193.21 up 0.13 or 0.07%.
The $RUT is at 1118 down 2 or -0.18%.
NASDAQ is at 4365 down 5 or -0.10%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3892 down 1 or -0.02%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 16.08 down 0.87 or -5.13%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is mixed and sea-sawing.
WTI oil is trading between 98.08 (resistance) and 97.08 (support) today. The session bias is sideways, trending down and is currently trading down at 97.28.
Brent Crude is trading between 106.12 (resistance) and 104.78 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 105.03.
Gold rose from 1281.54 earlier to 1297.96 and is currently trading down at 1294.30. The current intra-session trend is elevated, sideways and volatile.
Dr. Copper is at 3.227 falling from 3.255 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.60 and 81.35 and is currently trading down at 81.39, the bias is currently negative and volatile.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary