Market Commentary: Markets Open Down On Poor Economic News

Written by Gary

Opening Market Commentary For 07-28-2014

Premarkets were up+0.10% then down to flat by the opening. SPY had only traded 500K shares by 8:30 and 800K by 9 am; is this the quiet before the storm? Every pundit is claiming this is the big week for US economic data, but I am going to guess it is all going to be evened out by Friday as this Bull Market refuses to sink.

By 10 am the averages were generally down +0.40% on light to moderate volume and other ‘Tea-Leaves indicate this is a temporary decline with overreacting investors.

Later this week we are going to see some key US economic numbers with Friday publishing the all-important July Jobs Report. On Wednesday the Fed will probably announce another 10 billion pullback in its ongoing ‘taper’ program expected to end in October this year. Investors will also be looking for ‘Trolls’ in the report regarding clues as to when the Fed is going to raise interest rates – good luck.

I expect the jobs report on Friday to be a ‘normal’ report, neither good nor bad and the markets will close up for the week. Today’s reports were nothing to get excited about, but should have not taken the markets down. Tomorrow is ‘Tuesday Up Day’.

The first column is what was reported. The second column is what analysts were expecting and the the third is the last report.

The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 8.78. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period.

Investing.com members’ sentiments are 54 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 66.9 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction. (Chart Here )

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 71.23. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 82.80. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -31.92. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 66.84. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range)

The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!

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The DOW at 10:30 is at 16895 down 65 or -0.39%.

The SP500 is at 1969 down 9 or -0.47%.

SPY is at 196.79 down 1 or -0.47%.

The $RUT is at 1134 down 11 or -0.97%.

NASDAQ is at 4417 down 33 or -0.74%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3940 down 25 or -0.62%.

$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 13.56 up 0.87 or 6.75%. Bearish Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is negative.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 102.09 (resistance) and 101.11 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 101.29.

Brent Crude is trading between 108.10 (resistance) and 107.05 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 107.17.

Gold fell from 1311.50 earlier to 1304.07 and is currently trading down at 1306.00. The current intra-session trend is sideways.

Dr. Copper is at 3.246 rising from 3.226 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 81.14 and 81.07 and is currently trading up at 81.10, the bias is currently sideways and quiet.

Real Time Market Numbers

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Written by Gary