Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 07-24-2014
By 10:30 the session lows were history as the averages started methodically melting higher moving the SP500 to a new high (1991.39). The small caps remained below morning highs, the DOW traded mostly sideways and the volume is falling to anemic levels as most investors are through for the day.
By noon the averages were repeating yesterday’s of staying high and trading in a narrow band. The caution sign is out again as we watch for sudden reversals.
The ‘shorts’ are getting it in the pants once again. The bulls are totally we are at the top and want to the first to jump in and get the high fliers and yes, that can push the averages higher.
For the 5th day in a row, US equity markets have been ignoted higher at the open by a sudden and extreme short squeeze among the weakest balance sheet companies.
“Most Shorted” stocks have surged 3% in the last 5 days (double the S&P) but have only just managed to get back to unchanged for 2014 (against a 7.7% gain in the S&P).
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 10.75. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period.
Barchart.com shows a 88 % buy. (Been at 88% for the last 8 sessions, I think their meter is broken) Investing.com members’ sentiments are 57 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 66.9 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction. (Chart Here )
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range)
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
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The DOW at 12:00 is at 17104 up 18 or 0.11%.
The SP500 is at 1991 up 4 or 0.20%.
SPY is at 198.97 up 0.33 or 0.17%.
The $RUT is at 1162 up 4 or 0.36%.
NASDAQ is at 4485 up 11 or 0.24%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3993 up 7 or 0.18%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 11.69 up 0.18 or 1.56%. Neutral, but volatile Movements
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 103.29 (resistance) and 102.28 (support) today. The session bias is negative and volatile and is currently trading up at 102.30.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.24 (resistance) and 107.05 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 107.14.
Thursday, July 24, 2014 Gold futures have been unable to gain any traction in recent sessions, as a stronger US Dollar has thwarted the bull camp. Recent comments from the Federal Reserve indicated that the central bank will try to… Read More…
Gold fell from 1306.48 earlier to 1288.09 and is currently trading down at 1290.40. The current intra-session trend is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 3.265 rising from 3.201 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.98 and 80.81 and is currently trading down at 80.94, the bias is currently neutral and volatile.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary