Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 07-21-2014
Markets closed lower continued speculations that more financial sanction will be imposed on Russia and the rising civilian causality rate in Gaza.
By 4 pm there was a ‘normal’ sell-off of moderate to high red volume with obvious BTFDers jumping in at the last moment. Trading was mostly in a tight zone that was fractionally trending higher from the mornings low and the averages might continue to rise tomorrow.
The markets are once again trading sideways near their all-time highs and they are expected to continue this trend by sea-sawing up and down until a breakout occurs. Major negative news like we have been seeing will keep the averages numbers from climbing. When that noise abates, the markets are expected rise fractionally.
Major news outlets are claiming the geopolitical tensions is keeping the markets in check as Investors worry how additional Russian sanctions are going to hurt the markets.
U.S. stocks fell, after the biggest Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rally since April, as concern that tension in Ukraine could lead to deeper sanctions kept investors on the sidelines before major companies report earnings.
The S&P 500 rallied 1 percent on July 18, rebounding from its biggest loss since April 10 that came after the downing of a Malaysian Airlines passenger jet in Ukraine and the Israeli ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 9.52. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period.
Barchart.com shows a 88 % buy. (Been at 88% for the last 7 sessions, I think their meter is broken) Investing.com members’ sentiments are 57 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 66.6 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction. (Chart Here )
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range)
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 17052 down 48 or -0.28%.
The SP500 is at 1974 down 4.59 or -0.23%.
SPY is at 197.20 down 0.37 or -0.19%.
The $RUT is at 1147 down 5 or -0.43%.
NASDAQ is at 4425 down 7 or -0.17%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3934 down 6 or -0.15%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.81 up 0.75 or 6.22%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is depressed and fractionally trending up.
WTI oil is trading between 102.95 (resistance) and 101.47 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 102.86. (Gap at ~102.97, closed, prices edged up as predicted)
Brent Crude is trading between 107.81 (resistance) and 106.79 (support) today. The session bias is positive with volatility and is currently trading up at 107.75.
Gold fell from 1318.98 earlier to 1311.26 and is currently trading up at 1313.10. The current intra-session trend is down and trending fractionally upward.
Dr. Copper is at 3.199 rising from 3.174 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.66 and 80.48 and is currently trading down at 80.62, the bias is currently sideways and quiet.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary