Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 07-09-2014
Markets closed solidly in the green, validating the 2 ‘good’ days down rule.
By 4 pm the volume was up to ‘moderate’, the $VIX down to mid 11’s and oil and the US dollar were down. The question now is the market going to moving upward again? At this point I would recommend caution.
It appears not everyone was thrilled with the FOMC minutes this afternoon when the averages dropped like a rock, but the BTFDers finally won the day.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting show the majority of participants on the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting board aren’t too worried about a tick up in measures of inflation. The group, meanwhile, continued its discussion on how exactly it will pare back the central bank’s massive balance sheet, and how to communicate plans to eventually hike interest rates from historic lows. The consensus among policymakers was that the process should be undertaken in slow, gradual steps, as to not hinder the economic recovery.
Having continued to taper, expressed no fear of inflation, and been nothing but confident that Q1 was nothing-but-weather at the press conference, the FOMC Minutes shows:
*SOME FED OFFICIALS SAW INVESTORS AS TOO COMPLACENT ON RISKS
*FED SAW INSUFFICIENT INVESTOR UNCERTAINTY ON ECONOMY, RATES
*FOMC SEES QE ENDING WITH $15 BLN CUT IN OCT. IF OUTLOOK HOLDS
Strange not a mention of the surge in Treasury fails but this appears as close to a “sell” as the Fed will give…
Pre-FOMC Minutes: S&P Futs 1964, Gold $1323.50, 10Y 2.59%, Oil $102.22, JPY 101.75
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 14.33. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile period.
Barchart.com shows a 88 % buy. (This has been at 88% for the last three sessions, their meter may be broken.) Investing.com members’ sentiments are 58 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 69 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction. (Chart Here *)
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16986 up 79 or 0.47%.
The SP500 is at 1973 up 9 or 0.46%.
SPY is at 197.24 up 0.88 or 0.45%.
The $RUT is at 1174 up 1.66 or 0.14%.
NASDAQ is at 4419 up 28 or 0.63%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3893 up 29 or 0.75%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 11.65 down 0.33 or -2.75%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been net negative and the current bias is elevated, but trending sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 103.58 (resistance) and 102.01 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 102.15.
Brent Crude is trading between 109.02 (resistance) and 108.13 (support) today. The session bias is negative and volatile and is currently trading down at 108.25.
Maybe I’m Wrong – Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold rose from 1318.82 earlier to 1332.56 and is currently trading up at 1328.80. The current intra-session trend is positive.
Dr. Copper is at 3.253 falling from 3.274 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.27 and 80.03 and is currently trading down at 80.06, the bias is currently Negative and volatile. There is a gap that will be filled in sooner than later that requires the Dollar to retrace its numbers back down to 80.10. It has covered that gap and is now moving further downwards.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary