Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 07-04-2014
Happy Fourth of July.
US markets closed for the Holiday and will reopen On Monday July 7, 2014.
The world hasn’t shut down, read more for what is going on.
Here are some headlines for today.
European markets are mixed, mostly down. The CAC 40 is off -0.29%, the DAX off -0.22% and the FTSE up +0.01%.
July 4th may be a US national holiday, which means the S&P 500 won’t hit a record high on good news and a recorder high on bad, but judging by global trading volumes – already abysmal heading into today – one may as well give the entire world a day off.
However, for now, global equities have come off the impressive, and curiously schizophrenic US-data inspired gains of yesterday which sent the DJIA over 17,000 yet which has resulted in an almost unchanged 10Y Treasury print since before the NFP release.
Once again bonds and stocks agree to disagree.
The REAL ‘Real Unemployment Rate’ For June 2014: 9.6%
Before we leave today’s employment report, here is one more item of interest, which I overlooked this morning.
The unemployment rate declined for the right reason: fewer people were unemployed, even though more people entered the labor force. This is very good. Additionally, the people not counted in the unemployment rate because they were so discouraged they didn’t look at all – but would like a job now – also decreased. the total decrease of over 600,000 in a labor force of 150 million or so, means that the “real” unemployment rate dropped by -0.4% to 9.6%. (See chart here)
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. Barchart.com shows a 88 % buy. Investing.com members’ sentiments are 61 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 69.6 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction. (Chart Here)
If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the ‘Follow‘ button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.
The DOW closed on Thursday at 17068.23 up 92.02 or 0.54%.
The SP500 closed at 1985.44 up 10.82 or 0.55%.
SPY closed at 198.05 up 0.97 or 0.49%.
The $RUT closed at 1208.15 up 8.65 or 0.72%.
NASDAQ closed at 4485.93 up 28.20 or 0.63%.
NASDAQ 100 closed at 3923.01 up 23.74 or 0.61%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 10.32 down 0.50 or -4.62%. Bullish Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is at 103.75. (Open today)
Brent Crude is at 110.70. (Open today)
Gold is at 1321.10. (Open today)
Dr. Copper is at 3.270. (Open today)
The US dollar is at 80.29. (Open today) On Thursday, July 3, 2014, the Dollar gaped up 0.11 cents to 80.21 and then climbed higher to 80.53. Following that excitement the dollar fell back 0.24 cents to settle in for some sideways trading. There is a gap that will be filled in sooner than later that requires the Dollar to retrace its numbers back down to 80.10.
Thursday Closing Market Numbers
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary