Market Commentary: Markets Open To New Record Highs On Good Employment Numbers

Written by Gary

Opening Market Commentary For 07-03-2014

Premarkets were high, then moved to low and finally high again at +0.30% indicating a gap up for the SP500 and setting new highs.

The SP500 did gap up at the opening setting a new high at 1981.12 and the DOW broke 17,000 sliding up to 17028.28 on high volume before settling in for the day. Watch out for some heavy volatility and sudden deep reversals this morning. I am expecting retracement to below yesterdays close before the session ends.

The volatility in the premarket was an eye opening experience that hasn’t been seen for a long time. Not that it was an Earth moving experience, but on a short session at the end of the week, I wasn’t expecting it. It started out at +0.30% dropped to -0.05% after the good financial reports and inched its way back up to +0.30%, quite an swing for premarket action.

Both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will close at 1 p.m. today, giving traders a head start for the US July 4th weekend. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association has recommended that the U.S. bond market close at 2 p.m.

US economy added robust 288k jobs in June, 5th straight big gain; jobless rate dips to 6.1 pct

WASHINGTON (AP) – Hiring over the past five months has been the strongest since the late 1990s tech boom as the economy added 288,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent from 6.3 percent.

The Labor Department says those gains follow additions of 217,000 jobs in May and 304,000 in April, figures that were both revised upward. The economy has added more than 200,000 jobs in each of the past five months, a streak it last matched during the 1999-2000 tech boom.

It’s a sign that the sluggish half-decade recovery from the Great Recession is finally building momentum. Monthly job gains so far this year have averaged 230,833, up from 194,250 in 2013. The unemployment rate dipped last month to its lowest level since September 2008.

The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 15.95. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile period.

Barchart.com shows a 88 % buy. Investing.com members’ sentiments are 61 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 64.9 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 74.34.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 83.80.

(Click on $BPNYA or $BPSPX to see chart based on yesterday’s closing)

The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!

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The DOW at 10:00 is at 17045 up 66 or 0.39%.

The SP500 is at 1980 up 6 or 0.30%.

SPY is at 197.84 up 0.59 or 0.30%.

The $RUT is (Not Reporting)

NASDAQ is at 4469 up 11 or 0.25%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3907 up 8 or 0.21%.

$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 10.68 down 0.17 or -1.57%. Bullish Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 104.14 (resistance) and 103.69 (support) today. The session bias is volatile and neutral and is currently trading down at 103.86.

Brent Crude is trading between 110.92 (resistance) and 110.56 (support) today. The session bias is volatile and neutral and is currently trading down at 110.78.

Maybe I’m Wrong – Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones

Gold fell from 1324.23 earlier to 1311.10 and is currently trading down at 1319.40. The current intra-session trend is positive.

Analysts forecast a corrosive year for copper prices

Dr. Copper is at 3.275 rising from 3.246 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 80.05 and 80.53 and is currently trading down at 80.28, the bias is currently quiet and sideways. Earlier the Dollar gaped up 0.11 cents to 80.21 and then climbed higher to 80.53. Following that excitement the dollar fell back 0.24 cents to settle in for some sideways trading. There is a gap that will be filled in sooner than later that requires the Dollar to retrace its numbers back down to 80.10.

Real Time Market Numbers

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Written by Gary