Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 06-26-2014
Premarkets were flat then rising at the report of Americans filling for first-time benefits fell indication of a positive market opening. Plus consumer spending and personal income rose helping the premarkets rise fractionally.
Markets did open up and then immediately started falling to where they were off -0.70% in the first 15 minutes on moderate volume. By 10 am the averages has stopped the decline and started a modest reversal thanks to the BTFDers, but the DOW was off triple digits.
Follow the Fed and the markets fall – huh? The current trend is positive, natural after a deep drop, but will it continue? Many analysts do not think so.
“Markets don’t appreciate how close the Fed is to its goals,” and thus tightening, is the warning from the usually quite dovish Jim Bullard.
BULLARD SAYS MARKETS DON’T APPRECIATE HOW CLOSE FED IS TO GOALS; MARKETS SHOULD BE PRICING IN RATE INCREASES BASED ON WHAT THE FED SAYS
Remember, don’t fight the fed – unless they say sell?
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 14.31. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 56 % buy. Investing.com members’ sentiments are 59 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 68.5 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
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The DOW at 10:15 is at 16788 down 80 or -0.47%.
The SP500 is at 1951 down 9 or -0.45%.
SPY is at 194.78 down 0.79 or -0.40%.
The $RUT is at 1177 down 5 or -0.46%.
NASDAQ is at 4363 down 17 or -0.39%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3811 down 16 or -0.42%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 11.98 up 0.39 or 3.36%. Bearish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been net negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 106.77 (resistance) and 105.44 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 105.56.
Brent Crude is trading between 114.17 (resistance) and 113.16 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 113.34.
Maybe I’m Wrong – Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold rose from 1306.96 earlier to 1319.27 and is currently trading up at 1315.00. The current intra-session trend is positive and volatile.
Dr. Copper is at 3.157 falling from 3.176 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.44 and 80.19 and is currently trading up at 80.38, the bias is currently positive. (Gap at 80.32 indicating a positive movement back upwards which has occurred as predicted yesterday.)
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary