Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 06-19-2014
Trading actually was in a narrow range today and closed near the session highs. Overall, the volume was low, the new highs for the SP500 wasn’t convincing and hasn’t made me a bull-iver just yet. The higher this market goes without a correction the more concerned I become that a real kick-a$$ downturn is going to be the ‘rain-on-the-parade’.
By 4 pm the gold bugs were feeling good as it rose above 1300, the first time since April this year. The SP500 closed at a new historic high of 1959 and the small caps closed flat and in the red.
The SP500 marking another advance which many said several years ago (including me) that it could not rise this far, so maybe 2,000 isn’t out of the question, but I am not going to bet for or against the 500 climbing even higher.
I am not the only one that says be cautious.
Investors shouldn’t be cutting their exposure to stocks, but they also shouldn’t “surrender to the siren’s song and increase it either,” says S&P Capital IQ’s Sam Stovall.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 16.33. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 56 % buy. (down from 64% buy from this morning) Investing.com members’ sentiments are 64 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 67.4 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16921 up 15 or 0.09%.
The SP500 is at 1959 up 2.50 or 0.13%.
SPY is at 196.42 up 0.23 or 0.11%.
The $RUT is at 1181 up 0.90 or 0.08%.
NASDAQ is at 4359 down 3.51 or -0.08%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3801 down 3.81 or 0.10%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 10.62 up 0.01 or 0.09%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
Crude futures in Asia climbed higher today, after data was revealed showing a 579k barrel decrease in U.S. weekly oil stockpiles, and a growing crisis in Iraq. Still, U.S. domestic crude production is currently its highest in 28 years.
WTI oil is trading between 106.36 (resistance) and 105.13 (support) today. The session bias is sideways, quiet and is currently trading up at 106.12.
Brent Crude is trading between 115.68 (resistance) and 114.13 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading up at 115.09.
Maybe I’m Wrong – Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold rose from 1268.68 earlier to 1322.09 and is currently trading up at 1318.30. The current intra-session trend is positive and volatile.
Global Copper Outlook: Set To Miss The Forest For The Trees by Derek Hamill
Dr. Copper is at 3.073 rising from 3.043 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.77 and 80.23 and is currently trading down at 80.39, the bias is currently depressed and sideways.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary