Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 06-04-2014
Once more the SP500 reached for new highs (1228.63) on anemic volume leaving investors wondering how can this market be pushed upward when no one is buying. Seriously, this market is a joke and the consequences will be felt when everyone tries to sell.
By 4 pm the large caps were enjoying higher than ‘normal’ levels and the small caps were still off their March high marks, but slowly melting upward. Disturbingly, the low volume and increasing numbers in the averages has a lot of investors nervous and concerned about any further market advancement is a gamble.
There has never been a good of a time to remove some profits off the table as now. There have been some estimates that the market ‘could’ go 10 to 15% higher. Remember, in any correction that may come along, by the time you realize it isn’t going to melt back up, that 15% gain will be gone.
7 In 10 Americans Believe The Crisis Is Not Over Or Worst Is Yet To Come: 52% Can’t Afford Their Homes
According to a recent survey by the MacArthur foundation, during the past three years, over half of all U.S. adults (52%) have had to make at least one sacrifice in order to cover their rent or mortgage.
Such sacrifices included getting an additional job, deferring saving for retirement, cutting back on health care and healthy foods, running up credit card debt, or moving to a less safe neighborhood or one with worse schools.
More disturbingly, the survey also found that while there are some indicators that the American public’s views about the housing crisis are shifting toward the positive, large proportions of the public are not feeling the relief: seven in 10 (70%) believe we are still in the middle of the crisis or that the worst is yet to come.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at 13.62. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 16 % sell. Investing.com members’ sentiments are 67 % bearish.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16738 up 15 or 0.09%.
The SP500 is at 1928 up 3.64 or 0.19%.
SPY is at 193.17 up 0.39 or 0.20%.
The $RUT is at 1131 up 5 or 0.45%.
NASDAQ is at 4252 up 18 or 0.41%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3744 up 14 or 0.36%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.08 up 0.21 or 1.77%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive (starting to roll over?) and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 103.64 (resistance) and 102.40 (support) today. The session bias is negative and volatile and is currently trading down at 102.48.
Brent Crude is trading between 109.49 (resistance) and 108.26 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 108.33.
Maybe I’m Wrong – Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold fell from 1248.98 earlier to 1243.01 and is currently trading down at 1243.80. The current intra-session trend is negative and volatile.
Dr. Copper is at 3.094 falling from 3.142 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.71 and 80.50 and is currently trading up at 80.71, the bias is currently positive.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary