Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 05-29-2014
The SP500 made another new high at 1920.03, also closing there for a new closing high and on low volume. It smells of HFT computers, QE and Wall Street manipulations at work. Our proprietary indicators are VERY skeptical of these new high market indicators being valid.
By 4 pm the markets, in sync with the SP500, melted upwards leaving the DOW far behind. Not a market I want to be long in right now – cash is king!
This article is basically where my thoughts have been going over the past year or so. Regardless of the really good bullish reports based on solid information, I feel this party can not continue without more ‘Market Viagra’ in the form of QE. When the last can of beer is gone, so goes the party.
In an environment where equity and credit markets just won’t quit, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s crystal ball has some good news and some bad news for investors. We’ll be kind and start with the good news.
Equity markets and credit markets are likely bound for a summer of gains – verging on “irrational exuberance” – with all of the conditions aligning for a melt-up, the investment bank’s researchers predict.
For one, measures of value-at risk are low, suggesting that a build-up of short positions may get squeezed out of the market, perpetuating gains. In a note circulated Thursday, researchers led by Michael Hartnett write:
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at 12.26. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 8 % sell. (Down from 100% this morning, still very optimistic I think) Investing.com members’ sentiments are 68 % bearish.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16699 up 66 or 0.39%.
The SP500 is at 1920 up 10.25 or 0.54%.
SPY is at 192.37 up 0.99 or 0.52%.
The $RUT is at 1140 up 3 or 0.30%.
NASDAQ is at 4248 up 23 or 0.54%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3736 up 23 or 0.63%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 11.57 down 0.11 or -0.94%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is a positive trend, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 103.90 (resistance) and 102.62 (support) today. The session bias was positive, now turning negative and is currently trading down at 103.53.
Brent Crude is trading between 110.44 (resistance) and 109.73 (support) today. The session bias is negative and volatile and is currently trading up at 110.13.
Gold fell from 1260.12 earlier to 1251.53 and is currently trading down at 1255.90. The current intra-session trend is sideways.
Dr. Copper is at 3.146 falling from 3.176 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.60 and 80.39 and is currently trading down at 80.54, the bias is currently sideways.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary