Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 05-16-2014
Interesting afternoon session where the pump-n-dump specialists were hard at work taking over the action when volume was at anemic levels pushing the averages upward. The BTFDers fell in line snapping up what look like bargains and the ‘Sheeples’ just can’t believe their good fortune.
By 4 pm the large caps closed above the 50 DMA, but the small caps were floundering below the 145 DMA and remain in a downtrend channel. So the week ends about where we started it, except the volume totals are getting smaller. Are you concerned yet? Is it time to get out?
Yes, we may see some more high marks, but any investor buying into this market right now is just plain crazy. The traders love the volatility, but most of them are getting burnt when the markets take unannounced turns. Technically, the afternoon rise should have not have happened and I am sorry if you got sucked in, next week might not be a pretty picture.
Nasdaq and S&P back into the green for the week… Dow back into the green for the year… mission accomplished (but a little premature). And all it took was an options-expiration debacle-driven collapsed in VIX…
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 4.97. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 48 % buy. (Not sure I completely buy into this.) Investing.com members’ sentiments are 62 % bearish.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16491 up 45 or 0.27%.
The SP500 is at 1878 up 7 or 0.37%.
SPY is at 188.14 up 0.65 or 0.35%.
The $RUT is at 1103 up 7 or 0.63%.
NASDAQ is at 4091 up 23 or 0.52%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3587 up 22 or 0.62%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.32 down 0.85 or -6.45%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been mixed and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 102.21 (resistance) and 101.40 (support) today. The session bias is positive and volatile and is currently trading up at 102.11.
Brent Crude is trading between 110.01 (resistance) and 108.90 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading down at 109.79.
Gold fell from 1298.45 earlier to 1287.87 and is currently trading down at 1292.80. The current intra-session trend is sideways.
Dr. Copper is at 3.145 falling from 3.158 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.18 and 80.03 and is currently trading down at 80.10, the bias is currently sideways and quiet.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary