Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 04-22-2014
Sell-off towards the last few minutes being attributed to David Einhorn depicting a second tech bubble.
By 4 pm the averages had melted off the session highs to a modest closing. There is so much noise in the financial world that is difficult to discern what is and what isn’t happening. As usual, there is more to the story as the bulls put on their party hats.
The markets generally stopped at resistance today and backed off, maybe to gather up steam and go for the historical highs again. With the Ukraine situation teetering back and forth, I would advise caution in taking any position. However, look to tomorrow for market weakness and perhaps a down day which several analysts have predicted.
US Equity markets were on a mission today… all-time highs for the S&P and Dow were in sight, green for April for the S&P, and unchanged year-to-date for the Nasdaq and Russell was just over the horizon, but…
A total divergence from JPY carry, bond yields, credit, and even VIX meant that a ‘warning’ from David Einhorn about Tech Bubble 2.0 was just enough to take the juice out of what was already a low volume levitation.
It’s a Tuesday so we closed green – the 6th up day in a row – longest run in 7 months.
Biotechs ripped higher on M&A “get rich quick'”fever – biggest 2-day rise in 30 months.
Treasuries were mixed with 30Y bond yields ripping lower and 5s30s dropping 4bps to 1.75% – new lows since 2007.
Copper made modest gains on the day but gold, silver, and worst of all WTI crude all dropped on the day (WTI -2% to $102).
Here is the David Einhorn prediction.
“We have repeatedly noted that it is dangerous to short stocks that have disconnected from traditional valuation methods.
After all, twice a silly price is not twice as silly; it’s still just silly.
This understanding limited our enthusiasm for shorting the handful of momentum stocks that dominated the headlines last year.
Now there is a clear consensus that we are witnessing our second tech bubble in 15 years.
What is uncertain is how much further the bubble can expand, and what might pop it. In our view the current bubble is an echo of the previous tech bubble, but with fewer large capitalization stocks and much less public enthusiasm.”
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a past 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The MACD has turned down slightly, but remains above zero. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 24 % buy. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.)
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16514 up 65 or 0.40%.
The SP500 is at 1880 up 7.66 or 0.41%.
SPY is at 187.89 up 0.85 or 0.45%.
The $RUT is at 1156 up 13 or 1.16%.
NASDAQ is at 4161 up 40 or 0.97%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3589 up 29 or 0.81%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 13.20 down 0.05 or -0.38%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 103.56 (resistance) and 101.53 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 101.75.
Brent Crude is trading between 109.99 (resistance) and 108.55 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 109.34.
Gold fell from 1292.68 earlier to 1277.62 and is currently trading down at 1284.70. The current intra-session trend is positive.
Dr. Copper is at 3.055 rising from 3.025 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.06 and 79.86 and is currently trading up at 79.98, the bias is currently sideways.
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Written by Gary