Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 04-02-2014
No sooner than the opening commentary was published earlier the SP500 climbed to a new historic high (1890.63) and making investors wonder if this is going to be the ‘shooting star’ day. So far, that doesn’t seem to be on Mr. Market’s ‘to-do’ list.
By noon the averages were in the green, albeit flat and on falling volume, but that hasn’t stopped the HFT algo computers from pushing the numbers higher. The markets are quiet and seemingly waiting for the other shoe to drop as the averages are trading sideways in a narrow band.
I didn’t really believe we would see the SP500 reach 1900, but it may.
As we entered the year, Goldman Sachs set out a target of 1,900 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2014.
Thanks to the plethora of bad news (which, obviously, is great news) and the promise of more money printing if things get worse, with the mini-melt-up of the last few days (ahead of the ECB hope tomorrow and traders desire for a dismal print at Friday’s NFP), the S&P 500 is now within 10 points of Goldman’s year-end target (it seems 104.50 USDJPY will do it).
The Dow is also about to go green year-to-date for the first time in 2014.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday with a finger ready on the sell button. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The 50DMA, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The MACD has turned down slightly, but remains above zero. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 72 % sell. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.)
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The DOW at 12:00 is at 16554 up 21 or 0.13%.
The SP500 is at 1890 up 4 or 0.23%.
SPY is at 188.78 up 0.53 or 0.28%.
The $RUT is at 1191 up 18 or 1.55%.
NASDAQ is at 4275 up 7 or 0.17%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3664 up 6 or 0.17%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 13.05 down 0.05 or -0.38%. Neutral Movement
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The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is flat, but elevated.
WTI oil is trading between 100.21 and 98.90 today. The session bias is mixed, mostly sideways and is currently trading down at 99.53.
Brent Crude is trading between 105.33 and 103.95 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 104.56.
Gold rose from 1278.92 earlier to 1294.63 and is currently trading down at 1292.20. The current intra-session trend is elevated, but sideways.
Dr. Copper is at 3.045 falling from 3.073 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.13 and 80.43 and is currently trading up at 80.43, the bias is currently positive.
Real Time Stats
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Written by Gary