Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 03-31-2014
The averages have traded more or less sideways throughout the morning session. The small caps are still trading above one percent while the large caps have lost a bit of their morning luster as the volume continues to fall.
Strange how the volume can drop off, yet the prices continue to rise – maybe the HFT algo computers at work?
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MarketWatch reported, “Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said [today] that the recovery still feels like a recession to many Americans, which is why the central bank will keep its “extraordinary” support for the economy for “some time to come.”
In a speech to a Chicago community reinvestment conference, Yellen also provided evidence why there’s still slack in the jobs market, and weighed in on the hot issue of why the participation rate is so low.
The speech may come as a bit newsier than the market expected. Yellen expanded on the reasons she believes there are significant more people willing and capable to filling a job than there are jobs for them.
Yellen also provided three real-life examples of people impacted by the jobs crisis, and emphasized that “although we work through financial markets, our goal is to help Main Street, not Wall Street.”
WASHINGTON (AP) – Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made clear Monday that she thinks the still-subpar U.S. job market will continue to need the help of low interest rates “for some time.”
Yellen’s remarks signaled that even after the Fed phases out its monthly bond purchases later this year, it has no plans to raise a key short-term rate anytime soon.
The bond purchases have been intended to keep long-term loan rates low. Her remarks sent a reassuring message to investors, many of whom had grown anxious that the Fed might raise short-term rates by mid-2015.
Their concerns were stirred last month when Yellen suggested that the Fed could start raising short-term rates six months after it halts its bond purchases, which most economists expect by year’s end.
A short-term rate increase would elevate borrowing costs and could hurt stock prices.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The 50DMA, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The MACD has turned down slightly, but remains above zero. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 72 % sell.
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The DOW at 12:00 is at 16439 up 118 or 0.73%.
The SP500 is at 1872 up 14 or 0.77%.
SPY is at 186.95 up 1.46 or 0.79%.
The $RUT is at 1169 up 18 or 1.53%.
NASDAQ is at 4198 up 51 or 1.23%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3610 up 39 or 1.09%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 13.88 down 0.53 or -3.68%. Bullish Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is sideways bit elevated.
WTI oil is trading between 100.89 and 101.85 today. The session bias is mixed and volatile and is currently trading up at 101.60.
Brent Crude is trading between 107.06 and 108.32 today. The session bias is mixed and volatile and is currently trading up at 107.78.
Gold fell from 1299.09 earlier to 1287.37 and is currently trading up at 1289.30. The current intra-session trend is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 3.027 falling from 3.049 earlier.
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The US dollar is trading between 80.50 and 80.12 and is currently trading up at 80.23, the bias is currently negative.
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Written by Gary