Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 03-27-2014
The averages tested and retested the important support levels at least 3 times, one of which was severe enough to get the bulls worried. Volume was low enough to support the idea that savvy investors didn’t believe support was going to be broken; not today anyway.
By 4 pm the SP500 and the DOW took the smallest loss closing mostly flat while the small caps were at -0.55% below the line-in-the-sand that is now a major resistance. The small caps may be signaling that a correction may be underway and the DOW didn’t get the memo.
Investors should be on high alert as a mini waterfall could happen at any time. It is the ‘Sheeples’ that are going to get slaughtered on this one.
Bad news for the markets should this happen. Foxnews reports, “New U.S. intelligence assessments show there are more indications than ever that Russia could invade eastern Ukraine, with one official telling Fox News the likelihood of a ‘major Russian incursion’ has increased.”
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The 50DMA, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The MACD has turned down slightly, but remains above zero. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 88 % sell.
In looking at the 50 DMA the current SP500 is above that line, but way above the 200 DMA and on 02-06-14 crossed above the 100. I can not see, as of right now where the MA’s are rolling over to indicate any permanent bear run in fact quiet the opposite. However, the NASDAQ has gone below the 50 DMA and is a few point away from crossing the 200 DMA.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 06264 down 5 or -0.03%.
The SP500 is at 1849 down 3.52 or -0.19%.
SPY is at 184.55 down 0.39 or -0.21%.
The $RUT is at 1151 down 4 or -0.35%.
NASDAQ is at 4151 down 22 or -0.54%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3563 down 20 or -0.55%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 14.60 down 0.33 or -2.21%. Bullish Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been mixed and the current bias is sideways with upwards trend.
WTI oil is trading between 100.03 and 101.68 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 101.29.
Brent Crude is trading between 106.77 and 107.93 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 107.80.
Gold fell from 1307.52 earlier to 1290.05 and is currently trading down at 1292.90. The current intra-session trend is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 2.993 rising from 2.962 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.34 and 80.17 and is currently trading down at 80.26, the bias is currently negative.
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Written by Gary