Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 03-24-2014
Today’s volume is somewhat of confusion as the market place seems to be very partisan with the bulls and bears totally convinced the market is going their way. The issues in China and in the Ukraine are worrying a lot of investors and will be the major players this week.
By 4 pm the averages had climbed out of the sessions low spot with the DOW down 87 points recovering 105 points and then closing down 26 points. The other averages never saw green again after the opening.
I suspect we will see more consolidation and sideways trading until China or the Ukraine blows up in some fashion – it is only a matter of time.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The 50DMA, MACD, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 72 % sell.
In looking at the 50 DMA the current SP500 is above that line, but way above the 200 DMA and on 02-06-14 crossed above the 100. I can not see, as of right now where the MA’s are rolling over to indicate any permanent bear run in fact quiet the opposite.
Mr. Market is STILL not through playing with us and even newer historical highs are a distinct possibility beyond what we have seen, mainly because the amount of bond buying the Fed still does on a monthly basis. For those who are hell-bent bears, this article, 5 Reasons Your Simple Bear Market Plans Could Backfire, should be required reading.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16277 down 26 or -0.16%.
The SP500 is at 1857 down 9 or -0.49%.
SPY is at 185.44 down 0.77 or -0.41%.
The $RUT is at 1178 down 15.50 or -1.30%.
NASDAQ is at 4226 down 50 or -1.18%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3617 down 36 or -0.98%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 15.09 up 0.09 or 0.60%. Bullish Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is mixed, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is down, but mostly sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 100.28 and 99.05 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 99.36.
Brent Crude is trading between 106.45 and 107.49 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 106.59.
Gold fell from 1338.21 earlier to 1308.53 and is currently trading down at 1309.50. The current intra-session trend is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 2.940 rising from 2.922 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.45 and 79.89 and is currently trading up at 80.07, the bias is currently negative.
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Written by Gary