Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 03-20-2014
Not a whole lot to disseminate from the slow morning session. The averages went up and stayed up and trading was in a narrow band on low volume.
By noon the averages were sailing along at ~+0.30% on falling volume not at all reacting to the teenage comical rhetoric between the White House and the Kremlin.
It might get bad if they start throwing things other than words.
Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has soared to new five-year highs as the State Duma ratifies the agreement on Crimea’s admission to Russia.
However, it is the clear distain that the Russian Foreign Affairs Committee Deputy Chairman Alexander Romanovich had for the West’s response so far.
“The US and EU sanctions against Russia are absurd and unreal,” the lawmaker scoffed, adding “this is an operetta, and we can only laugh.” So much for non-mutually-assured-destruction-based sanctions.
The Duma are considering how retaliatory sanctions could be imposed.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The 50DMA, MACD, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but that could happen in a heartbeat. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 56 % sell.
I still believe that Mr. Market is STILL not through playing with us and even newer historical highs are a distinct possibility beyond what we have seen, mainly because the amount of bond buying the Fed still does on a monthly basis. For those who are hell-bent bears, this article, 5 Reasons Your Simple Bear Market Plans Could Backfire, should be required reading.
If the Russian President Putin stops at annexing Crimea, the markets may alleviate current weakness and the bull run will continue as some bullish pundits seem to indicate. It is also possible that this is simply a pause where Putin will take the slack time to consider his next global conquest. One of the many issues investors face is that a Reuters article suggests that tensions in Eastern Europe/Central Asia aren’t going away as Russian posturing persists in spite of Russian Propaganda. Yet investors don’t seem to mind today.
Investors are also worried about issues directly related to the Fed’s tapering and are considering this factor along with the Argentine Peso, South African Rand and the Yen. And of course, China’s defaulting businesses are dropping like flies.
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The DOW at 12:00 is at 16278 up 56 or 0.34%.
The SP500 is at 1866 up 5 or 0.26%.
SPY is at 187.11 up 0.45 or 0.24%.
The $RUT is at 1197 up 1.18 or 0.10%.
NASDAQ is at 4314 up 7 or 0.16%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3691 up 8 or 0.22%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 15.08 down 0.04 or -0.26%. Neutral Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been mixed and the current bias is elevated, but sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 98.10 and 99.44 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 98.26.
Brent Crude is trading between 106.23 and 105.44 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 105.72.
Gold rose from 1321.11.02 earlier to 1322.55 and is currently trading down at 1331.40. The current intra-session trend is positive.
Dr. Copper is at 2.925 falling from 2.995 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.05 and 80.50 and is currently trading up at 80.34, the bias is currently positive.
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Written by Gary