Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 03-14-2014
The trend from the noon high mark has been melting downward but never exceeding the morning’s low point. Investors are wondering if the markets are displaying weakness or strength by not going below the bottom limit of their support (SP500 is 1939).
The last 45 minutes of the session was a tight trading band that slid sideways on low volume. The SP500 did contact 1839, but bounced off and closed a ‘bit’ higher as did the DOW.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The 50DMA, MACD, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 100% sell.
Several notes of negativity are that the daily volume is very low matching the period of historical highs in the past which could set the stage for addition weakness and market decline. The longer MACD view is starting uphill, but not convincingly signaling a continued up trend as it is very weak. Lastly, the margin debt for stock purchases are at an all time high.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16066 down 43 or -0.27%.
The SP500 is at 1841 down 5 or -0.28%.
SPY is at 184.52 down 0.52 or -0.28%.
The $RUT is at 1181 up 5 or 0.40%.
NASDAQ is at 4245 down 15 or -0.35%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3628 down 24 or -0.65%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 17.78 up 1.56 or 9.62%. Bearish Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 98.06 and 99.20 today. The session bias is mixed and is currently trading down at 98.97.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.43 and 107.38 today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading down at 108.10.
Gold fell from 1388.44 earlier to 1374.00 and is currently trading down at 1381.10. The current intra-session trend is positive.
Dr. Copper is at 2.937 rising from 2.912 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 79.82 and 79.44 and is currently trading up at 79.55, the bias is currently sideways.
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Written by Gary