Market Commentary: Markets Trending Lower Waiting For FOMC Minutes

Written by Gary

Opening Market Commentary For 10-30-2013

Premarkets were up +0.35% and falling to flat by the opening after investors digested the ‘not so good’ financial reports this morning.

Markets did open up +0.15% on moderate green volume The DOW climbed to a new historical high besting the 09-18-2013 and the SP500 did the same rising to 1775 and just a quickly backing off and falling to yesterday’s closing numbers.

By 10 am the markets were sea-sawing up and down but generally trending lower on low to moderate volume with the $VIX climbing to 14.00.

The bears are counting on a correction and the bulls are trying their best to move the markets higher, but until King Ben and his Merry Men of the Fed state their position today I would sit on your hands in light of this mornings mixed financial reports.

The financial reports this morning were mixed but generally regarded as poor as the Labor Department reports consumer prices rose 0.2% in September from the month prior, matching expectations. Excluding the food and energy sectors, inflation rose 0.1% , slightly lower than the 0.2% expected.

Also, Payroll processor ADP reports private sector employment increased by 130,000 jobs in October compared to estimates of 150,000.

Welcome To The Non-Recovery: ADP Payrolls Miss Big, Plunge To Lowest Since April

As we mentioned earlier, if there was one thing that would guarantee an 1800 print in the Stalingrad and Propaganda 500 index today, it was a 0 or negative ADP print.

Well, it wasn’t that bad. But it was close: with a paltry 130K private jobs created in October, this was a monthly plunge in private (i.e. non-government) payrolls, well below expectations, and substantially lower than the September 166K print which also was revised lower to 145K.

It was also the 4th consecutive monthly decline starting with a 190K print in June, and it’s all downhill from there.

Finally, this was the 7th ADP miss in the past 8 months. We can’t wait as the spinmasters do all they can to explain how private payrolls were affected by a government shutdown.

The talk on the street is that the Fed is expected to announce that it will maintain its dovish $85bn in monthly asset purchases and keep the interest rate at 0.25% after the two-day meeting.

The DOW at 10:15 is at 15681 up 1 or 0.00%.

The SP500 is at 1771 down 1 or -0.05%.

SPY is at 177.06 down 0.10 or -0.06%.

The $RUT is at 1117 down 4 or -0.37%.

NASDAQ is at 3948 down 5 or -0.12%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3393 up 1 or 0.04%.

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is negative.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 98.20 and 97.10 today. The session bias is mixed to negative and is currently trading down at 97.32.

Brent Crude is trading between 108.60 and 109.63 today. The session bias is mixed to positive and is currently trading down at 109.23.

Gold rose from 1338.69 earlier to 1359.25 and is currently trading up at 1358.80.

Here’s why copper has lost its indicator role

Dr. Copper is at 3.322 rising from 3.273 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 79.75 and 79.52 and is currently trading down at 79.56, the bias is currently mixed and negative.

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Written by Gary