Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 10-25-2013
The markets closed higher with the SP500 inching up to its previous historical high. The DOW still drags behind as the $NDX and $COMPX made new highs today, highest since 2000, but sliding off the new highs.
By the closing bell the volume had moved to heavy status with the BTFDers falling over themselves to not be the last person to find an empty seat in this game of musical chairs.
I have made several points in the past months that this market is looking more and more like pre 2008 charts. It is different this time in that the ‘bubbles’ are vastly contrasting, but bubbles are bubbles and when they pop, watch out.
Having said that, the continuation of the Fed’s ‘Market Viagra’, possibly, according to rumors, making the blue pill for Mr. Market larger and stronger, the bubble is likely to get larger than smaller.
As we head into the vinegar strokes of 2013 with the world awash with liquidity and ever ready to BTFATH, we note that the last time the S&P 500 saw two consecutive years when the index did not go negative year-to-date was 1975-1976.
As Bloomberg notes, just as in 2012 and 2013, we have not seen one day close below the previous year’s closing level but as Marketfield’s Michael Shaoul comments “eventually circumstances will change sufficiently to make the equity market a treacherous place“.
. . . and if history is any guide, just as 1977 saw stocks drop 15%, then 2014 may reacquaint investors with what “risk” and “volatility” means in US equities.
Short term indicators are still in the 50-50 zone with some emphasis on the sell side. The longer term indicators are also leaning toward the sell side too, but always difficult to get a sense of direction when markets are at a top.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15570 up 61 or 0.39%.
The SP500 is at 1760 up 8 or 0.44%.
SPY is at 175.87 up 0.80 or 0.46%.
The $RUT is at 1118 down 0.51 or -0.05%.
NASDAQ is at 3943 up 14 or 0.37%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3384 up 21 or 0.64%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 96.95 and 98.04 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 97.97.
Brent Crude is trading between 106.28 and 107.39 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 107.08.
Gold rose from 1336.58 earlier to 1355.68 and is currently trading down at 1351.50.
Dr. Copper is at 3.267 rising from 3.234 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 79.06 and 79.38 and is currently trading up at 79.26, the bias is currently sideways.
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Written by Gary