Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 10-24-2013
The averages have been melting upwards since the morning lows and are generally in the +0.30% green zone. The DOW is till leading the pack at +0.55%.
By noon the averages have settled into a sideways trading zone on falling volume.
The higher the markets rise on weak data, Feds ‘free ice cream’ and a slowly eroding World economy, the harder they will fall.
The risk of a more meaningful reversion is rising. It is unknown, unexpected and unanticipated events that strike the crucial blow that begins the market rout.
Unfortunately, due to the increased impact of high frequency and program trading, reversions are likely to occur faster than most can adequately respond to. This is the danger that exists today.
Are we in the third phase of a bull market? Most who read this article will immediately say “no.” However, those were the utterances made at the peak of every previous bull market cycle.
The reality is that, as investors, we should consider the possibility, evaluate the risk and manage accordingly. With the current bull market now stretching into its fifth year; it seems appropriate to review the three very distinct phases of historical bull market cycles.
While the current bull market cycle may not be set to end tomorrow; it seems sensible to take a pause to question mainstream beliefs.
Indicators on the short side are 50 – 50 with a slight tendency on the sell side. The longer term remains negative. Generally speaking, the markets are untradable at this time.
The DOW at 12:00 is at 15495 up 81 or 0.53%.
The SP500 is at 1751 up 4 or 0.26%.
SPY is at 175.02 up 0.44 or 0.27%.
The $RUT is at 1116 up 5 or 0.45%.
NASDAQ is at 3925 up 18 or 0.45%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3361 up 15 or 0.45%.
The longer trend is up, the past 6 months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 97.68 and 95.97 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 96.64.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.27 and 107.02 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 107.19.
Gold rose from 1334.00 earlier to 1351.78 and is currently trading down at 1350.20.
Dr. Copper is at 3.268 falling from 3.280 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 79.37 and 79.13 and is currently trading down at 79.22, the bias is currently sideways.
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Written by Gary