Market Commentary: Markets Close Higher On Rumors Of More QE

Written by Gary

Closing Market Commentary For 10-24-2013

Markets closed up on a positive note, but on low volume which is a bearish sigh. Minor indicator, but another notch in the gun butt as we ponder what Mr. Market is going to do next. We are poised, again, for another ‘major’ move either up or down, but it is increasingly look bad for the bulls out there.

By 4 pm the major averages enjoyed an average of +0.30% increase with the DOW plowing ahead +0.62% by the closing bell.

I keep on talking about a weak market, something that should descend and not keep melting upwards, then I add a caveat that the Fed is still giving away ‘Market Viagra’. Well the current rumor is that the ‘blue pill’ is going to get larger and that my friends will move the averages higher. Heaven help the bulls if they don’t.

Here We Go: SocGen Warns There Is “Possibility” Fed May Increase QE Next Week

And so, one by one, the crazy pills theories start rolling out.

Yesterday, as we first pointed out, Deutsche Bank made waves when it became the first “serious” organization to suggest that the Fed has now missed its tapering window and will plough on thorough until the next downturn.

. . . without ever lowering the pace of Flow (of course the reflexive paradox that the economy would be in an out of control depression without QE in the first place somehow does not figure in that calculation).

And while this has not been a novel idea (we first predicted that once perpetual QE starts it will never taper, long before QE 3, aka QEternity was even publicly announced last summer) today, all the penguin “pundit” copycats have jumped aboard this theory. Well, not all. SocGen has decided to make waves of its own with an even crazier pills idea: instead of no taper… ever… the Fed, that glorious redistributor of wealth from the middle class to the 1%, while happy to adhere to that old saying:

. . . “a funded welfare program a day, keeps the guillotines away” will not only not announce a Taper in next week’s FOMC meeting but will in fact hike QE!

Indicators on the short side are 50 – 50 with a slight tendency on the sell side. The longer term remains negative. Generally speaking, the markets are untradable at this time.

The DOW at 4:00 is at 15509 up 96 or 0.62%.

The SP500 is at 1752 up 7 or 0.33%.

SPY is at 175.35 up 0.58 or 0.33%.

The $RUT is at 1119 up 8 or 0.71%.

NASDAQ is at 3929 up 6 or 0.33%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3362 up 22 or 0.45%.

The longer trend is up, the past 6 months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 97.68 and 95.97 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 97.06.

Brent Crude is trading between 108.27 and 106.94 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 106.95.

Gold rose from 1334.00 earlier to 1351.78 and is currently trading up at 1346.70.

Here’s why copper has lost its indicator role

Dr. Copper is at 3.270 falling from 3.280 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 79.37 and 79.13 and is currently trading down at 79.25, the bias is currently sideways.

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Written by Gary