Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 10-21-2013
Premarkets were flat and the markets opened the same way unsure how the 10 am US financial reports were going to come out. When the reported ‘mixed’ the markets did nothing and remained flat.
At the opening the volume was moderate to heavy, mixed and looking weak.
The bad news is that the ‘recovery’ is not going well the good news is . . . is, well there really isn’t any today.
Thanks to a considerable downward revision of the magical NAR numbers, the existing home sales MoM ‘beat’ expectations for September but the two-month average shows the largest drop in sales since June 2012.
From the “cyclical peak” in July, of course extrapolated by any and all apologists as confirming the voyage to the moon, it seems, just as we noted, that “affordability” – long shunned by the bulls (because, like you know, interest rates are still low compare to the 1970s…) – has collapsed to five-year lows; worse, in fact, than we expected.
With 33% of all transactions cash, it is little surprise that affordability has fallen to a five-year low as home price increases easily outpaced income growth.
I have continuing issues with some pundits, writing continually, that there are good setups for day trading which has only been true for swing trading, but the Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Confirms “Untradeable”. However there is a wedge between perception and reality that has been going on for some time now where the reality doesn’t match the continued bull run. Maybe we have seen the top – but I wouldn’t count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out ‘Market Viagra’!
The problem facing traders is that the day trading range, which has been so narrow lately, is that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:30 is at 16391 down 9 or -0.06%.
The SP500 is at 1745 up 0.48 or 0.03%.
SPY is at 174.48 up 0.08 or 0.05%.
The $RUT is at 1116 up 0.82 or 0.07%.
NASDAQ is at 3926 up 12 or 0.30%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3364 up 10 or 0.30%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 101.20 and 99.80 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 100.10.
Brent Crude is trading between 110.17 and 109.21 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 109.65.
Gold fell from 1324.00 earlier to 1313.24 and is currently trading up at 1317.20.
Dr. Copper is at 3.303 falling from 3.311 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 79.67 and 79.87 and is currently trading up at 79.77, the bias is currently negative.
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Written by Gary