Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 09-16-2013
Just goes to show you how much of a casino this market is, what you think or hope the market will do, it won’t. Late afternoon the markets started to tumble generally erasing half of the gains of this session.
By 4 pm the Monday session had recovered somewhat from the days low point but was in a mixed situation with the ‘new” DOW plowing ahead while the small caps suffered a loss. Volume was moderate and indicators are confused as to which way Mr. Market is going.
Markets are obviously news driven and the Summers opt out event clearly illustrates how the markets can move. Then just as quickly the new girl on the block has her say and the averages tumble. The bottom line is that investors are also very fickle in that they choose what they like to hear, not necessarily what is actually going to be important or even true.
We are still in an indecision market event where anything can and will happen. Now is not the time to ‘guess’ which way this markets going to go.
Now that Syria has been disposed of – that is, indefinitely consigned to failed state purgatory – the world can focus its remaining attention on the almighty taper.
We’re with those who think we’ll get a taper test. That is, the Fed will cut back ten or fifteen percent on its treasury bond purchases to see what happens.
What happens is perfectly predictable: interest rates shoot above 3 percent on the ten-year and holders of US paper all the world round fling them away like bales of smallpox blankets and… Houston, we’ve got a problem.
After a month (or less) of havoc in the bond market, and the housing market, Mr. Bernanke will issue an advisory saying (in more words than these) “just kidding.”
Then it will be back to business as usual, which is to say QE Forever, which might as well be saying “game over.”
One must feel for poor Mr. Bernanke. He’s tried to run a long-distance foot-race against reality and now it’s breathing down his neck near finish line.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15495 up 119 or 0.77%.
The SP500 is at 1697 up 9.61 or 0.57%.
SPY is at 170.98 up 1.67 or 0.99%.
The $RUT is at 1056 up 2.27 or 0.22%.
NASDAQ is at 3718 down 4.33 or -0.12%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3168 down 9.58 or -0.30%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil gaped from 108.54 to 106.76 and continued to fall to 105.60 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 105.86.
Brent Crude is trading between 111.72 and 108.79 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 109.74. (A 0.25 gap is at 111.72)
Gold fell from 1334.69 earlier to 1307.45 and is currently trading down at 1310.10.
Dr. Copper is at 3.218 falling from 3.271 earlier.
The US dollar gaped down from 81.66 to 81.37, then fell further to 81.13 and is currently trading up at 81.44, the bias is currently positive.
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Written by Gary