Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 09-13-2013
Just as the markets have done in the past, the morning lows have been erased by melting up on falling volume. Unless some black swan pokes its nose into this session, I expect the averages to melt up slightly and end the day higher.
By noon the small caps were still negative ~-0.04% and improving while the DOW was back up near the morning lows. Volume is falling off with spurts of BTFD green action every once in a while. The believers still believe.
Should have guessed the averages would melt up after the financial ‘not so good’ news this morning. One of these days, ADBFICGA**, this markets going to start drifting in the opposite direction when investors see bad news.
This is the first consecutive monthly drop in 14 months and the largest miss vs expectations on record.
Printing at 76.8 (against an expectation of 82.0), this is the lowest in 5 months and points to the picture we have been painting of a consumer increasingly affected by rising rates and soaring gas prices amid stagnant incomes.
As Citi notes below, this is the exact same pattern we have seen play out in the last 2 cycles and suggest significant downside risk to US equities. The economic outlook sub-index collapsed to its lowest since January.
** After Dr. Ben’s Free Ice Cream Give Away
The DOW at 12:15 is at 15372 up 71 or 0.47%.
The SP500 is at 1688 up 4.35 or 0.26%.
SPY is at 169.32 up 0.37 or 0.22%.
The $RUT is at 1051 up 3 or 0.27%.
NASDAQ is at 3718 up 2 or 0.06%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3177 up 1 or 0.04%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 108.81 and 107.24 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 107.84.
Brent Crude is trading between 111.86 (gap here) and 110.56 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 111.10.
Gold fell from 1330.61 earlier to 1304.86 and is currently trading down at 1314.10.
Dr. Copper is at 3.202 fell from 3.223 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.57 and 81.91 and is currently trading up at 81.74, the bias is currently positive.
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Written by Gary