Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 09-09-2013
Premarkets were up some +0.20%, but quiet. The FTSE in London is down -0.42% along with the German DAX down -0.05% leading investors to believe the US markets will also fall at the opening.
Markets opened up 0.50% to 0.75% on moderate volume which quickly started to fall off in the first few minutes. The averages continued to melt upwards as did the green volume. By 10 am it appeared the BTFDers has spent all of their money as the averages appeared to be moving in a familiar sea-saw sideways pattern. Syria seems to have lost its appeal to the Bears.
I have said all along this market has been manipulated by Dr. Ben’s ‘Free Ice Cream’ in such a way that the continued bullishness over the past several years is going to eventually have a deleterious effect. This so-called recovery has been based on phony, manipulated and fraudulent data and the eventual outcome is not going to be pretty.
Unconventional monetary policies of the Fed et al. are having distortionary effects on asset markets and increasing their inherent instability. Via a mathematical framework, that has been empirically shown to accurately model bubbles, and give a prediction for when they will ultimately come to an end, Variant Perception (VP) investigates the S&P 500 today.
The framework suggests a window of time within which the S&P will experience a ‘regime change’, which may involve a steep price drawdown. Using this framework, VP predicts this regime change will occur any time between now and the beginning of Q413.
Furthermore, based on a suite of indicators for the S&P which point towards overbought and overvalued conditions with a backdrop of complacency and divergent market internals, VP forecast any regime change to resolve itself through a – potentially steep – market drawdown. Remaining long is an ugly wager.
For the second week in a row the Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Confirm “Untradeable”. Our long term indicators are in neutral while the shorter term have swung towards the sell side at 80% sell and 20% buy. The Syrian conflict issues and the Fed tapering are still foremost in investors minds and should keep the markets moving along more or less sideways until ‘something’ is resolved. In the meantime keep your hands in your pockets.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15013 up 90 or 0.60%.
The SP500 is at 1664 up 9 or 0.53%.
SPY is at 166.79 up 0.77 or 0.46%.
The $RUT is at 1036 up 6.77 or 0.66%.
NASDAQ is at 3679 up 19 or 0.52%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3147 up 14 or 0.44%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been slightly positive and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 110.44 and 109.58 today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading down at 109.97.
Brent Crude is trading between 116.17 and 114.17 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 114.83.
Gold rose from 1382.03 earlier to 1390.43 and is currently trading up at 1389.80.
Dr. Copper is at 3.280 rising from 3.246 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.32 and 81.95 and is currently trading up at 82.01, the bias is currently negative.
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Written by Gary