Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 09-05-2013
Volatile futures set this morning’s pace where the oils were up then headed down along with Dr. Copper and gold. The US dollar was moving upward breaking out of yesterday’s confined trading zone.
At the opening, markets broke up and out of yesterday’s range bound trading just below a weak resistance and was not unexpected. Some gaps were formed but notably the SP500 did not have one as has been the case in prior sessions. Volume started out moderate and has slide lower to anemic levels.
By the 15 minute mark the markets had leveled off at +0.25%. By 10 am the averages started to melt downwards but is not an indication of a failing market, but one of uncertainty.
We may have a large drop in the initial jobs claims this morning, but as always there are other aspects to consider before we get all giddy and pushing our chips onto the market casino table. Syrian war is still foremost on the minds of investors and will create a lot of volatility as the bulls and bears duke it out.
The last 2 weeks have seen the biggest drop in initial jobless claims in 3 months as today’s print is within a [smudge] of six year lows.
Continuing claims also fell close to 5.5 year lows. All good healthy “Taper-On” news ahead of the all-important NFP.
However, the only fly in the ointment as far as celebrating this ‘renaissance’ remains productivity gains and the ongoing slump in unit labor costs (which missed expectations of an easy-money earnings-growth generated +0.8% gain and came in at a dismal 0.0%).
Simply put, all the hope of wage inflation providing the self-sustaining glue to hold this ‘thing’ together post-Fed-Taper is fading fast as the liquidity pipeline remains unerringly clogged.
Also, another fly in the ointment. FoxNews reported, “
The number of planned layoffs by U.S. employers jumped 33.8% in August from July to 50,462, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. It was the highest level since February.”
The RRR** was again narrow at the opening bell today signaling a poor trading day might be at hand. Short term indicators have fallen from 80% sell to 65% and the longer term ones remain mixed, but basically untradable.
Swing trading is also at your own risk although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10 am is at 14981 up 50 or 0.34%.
The SP500 is at 1659 up 6 or 0.36%.
SPY is at 166.30 up 0.56 or 0.34%.
The $RUT is at 1029 up 4 or 0.37%.
NASDAQ is at 3661 up 12 or 0.33%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3134 up 9 or 0.27%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is bullish.
WTI oil is trading between 106.82 and 108.09 today. The session bias is positive, but mixed and is currently trading down at 107.80.
Brent Crude is trading between 114.52 and 115.55 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 114.61.
Gold rose from 1381.27 earlier to 1399.46 and is currently reversed course and trading down at 1385.40.
Dr. Copper is at 3.234 falling from 3.259 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.14 and 82.53 and is currently trading up at 82.51, the bias is currently positive.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary