Opening Market Commentary For 08-22-2013
Premarkets were up this morning and remained on the positive side when the unemployment figures rose to 336,000 and continuing claims rose to 2999K. There was also a unusual high green spike of volume right after the announcement.
The markets opened higher, but without gaping like it has done in the past several sessions. Slowly melting up where the DOW was up +0.25% and the $RUT was up +0.74% in the first 15 minutes. Volume dropped off to anemic levels prior to the 10 am announcement of US Leading Indicators as investors waited for the other shoe to drop.
Rising unemployment and continuing claims seem to be elixir of more QE and less tapering therefore melting the markets up or at least remaining positive. But to me it looks like a lot of the positive effects of QE has lost it luster and is not providing the same level of positiveness that it once had.
The US leading indicators came in at +0.06% up from 0.0% and the markets did absolutely nothing but slide sideways in a very narrow range. So now we wait for news coming out of Dr. Ben’s Jackson’s Hole – yes, I know!
Further, everyone now believes the Fed will start tapering no matter what the employment figures are. I also believe the Fed has acknowledged its blunder for pumping so much money into the system without gaining desired results. Let’s just call the Fed’s meddling building a bubble and they are now trying to deflate it and most savvy investors know this.
The question in everyone’s minds now is what Mr. Market is going to do? Good question as I can see both the Bulls and Bears point of view, but the 6 month outlook if definitely bearish.
Indicators are still in the 50% to 60% bullish and ~30% bearish for the longer view. The near term bearishness rises dramatically to 50% with some indicators even higher. If you are good at guessing, you could make a bundle calling the correct movement here.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14947 up 50 or 0.33%.
The SP500 is at 1654 up 11 or 0.96%.
SPY is at 165.69 up 1 or 0.69%.
The $RUT is at 1031 up 10 or 0.96%.
NASDAQ is at 3642 up 32 or 0.90%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3098 up 27 or 0.88%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is bullish.
WTI oil is trading between 103.54 and 104.70 today. The session bias is sideways with a negative slant and is currently trading down at 104.22.
Brent Crude is trading between 109.48 and 110.13 today. The session bias is melting down and is currently trading down at 109.78.
Wayne S. caught my typing blunder yesterday, let’s see if I can type better today.
Gold rose from 1354.84 earlier to 1380.85 and is currently trading down at 1376.40.
Dr. Copper is at 3.346 rising from 3.295 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.12 and 81.76 and is currently trading up at 81.62, the bias is currently neutral to bullish.
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Written by Gary