Opening Market Commentary For 08-15-2013
Premarkets were down -1% after the morning financials were reported. The numbers were as expected and no surprises, but investors must have other things on their minds as the markets gaped down at the opening where the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 was off -1.25%. The $VIX jumped to over 14.00 for the first time in a month.
Red volume was on the heavy side, but not unusually so and by the 15 minute mark fell to almost anemic levels. . . AND then it started to rise!
So, Mr. Market, what is in store for us today?
Are the morning lows going to be erased as they have been in past sessions and end the day with another hockey stick chart? I do not trust this casino market well enough to play my cards and hope to win. There have been way too many false indicators and bear traps lately for my liking and prefer to sit this one out.
The indicators are mixed were some show a low bullish 8% sell and others are showing the sell at 35%, still not all that bearish. The media and politicians alike are trying to spin continuing ‘not-so-good’ financials from the corporations and governments into a sweet smelling sewer. This has been going on for far too long and sometime in the future, which could this week, there is going to be a much needed ‘correction’ of something much greater than a mere 5%.
This is not the first time we have seen a correction after a short market consolidation. The last correction in June was over 5% and then went on to score new historical highs on the major indices. Is that what is in store this time or are investors worried about the house of cards that Dr. Ben has built and foresee something more sinister?
While Americans were blissfully BTFD in June, and enjoying the media propaganda that “all is well” and the beard has their back (he does, but not in the conventionally accepted way) foreigners were selling.
Did we say selling? Pardon, we meant dumping with a vengeance, throwing out the boatload with the bathwater, with both hands and feet and getting to da choppa.
As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the market highs, safely anyway. Traders need to be especially cautious how close you set your stops as we have seen lately several corrections that unnecessarily wiped out a lot of investment profits. As for shorting, it still may be too early to start picking out your best candidates. If you want to take a guess (and gamble), it appears we are in for a small correction.
Correctly ‘guessing’, of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any day trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability, a swing trade might be the best action, but it is still a gamble.
The trading range has been so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15127 down 210 or -1.37%.
The SP500 is at 1661 down 25 or -1.45%.
SPY is at 166.35 down 2.37 or -1.40%.
The $RUT is at 1030 down 17 or -1.63%.
NASDAQ is at 3605 down 64 or -1.74%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3072 down 57 or -1.83%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 107.85 and 106.92 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 107.12.
Brent crude is trading between 110.03 and 109.10 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 109.31.
Gold fell from 1344.28 earlier to 1318.08 and is currently trading up at 1327.40.
Dr. Copper is at 3.311 falling from 3.349 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.46 and 81.99 and is currently trading up at 81.96, the bias is currently bullish.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary