Closing Market Commentary For 08-09-2013
Past 4 days have had heavier volume than previous sessions and it seems we have an equal number of buyers and sellers. The problem for traders is not the increase in volume, but the narrow trading range and reversals we are witnessing. Maybe next week things will improve for traders and investors alike.
Markets closed down after a brief run in the green this morning but remained in a relatively tight trading range. Cautious traders were closing out riskier position in light of a possible stormy weekend in the EU causing a minor sell off towards the session close.
By 4 pm the markets were definitely melting down leaving the BTFD folks to eat dust. The DOW has had it first losing week since June, if that means anything. TA has been out the window since QE1 and the saga of Dr. Ben’s free ice cream, so I do not have any thoughts for Monday.
For those who have come late to the party here is more on the BLS – I know, this just can’t be true.
We’ve known for a long time that the Bureau of Labor Statistics fudges the numbers to make unemployment look lower than it is really is.
BLS itself has admitted that its “adjustments” skew unemployment data during recessions.
Indeed, the former head of the BLS recently said BLS statistics are B.S. … and that unemployment is much higher than the government is letting on.
Since mid-July, the S&P 500 is practically unchanged having ebbed and flowed on lower and lower volumes.
But one thing that is very clear in the last few weeks, investors seem to have been conditioned to sell early and BTFD late…
The question we have is (given the S&P is approaching its worst week of the year), when everyone ‘knows’ this is the strategy, when does it become self-defeating?
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15425 down 73 or -0.47%.
The SP500 is at 1691 down 6 or -0.36%.
SPY is at 169.04 down 0.76 or -0.45%.
The $RUT is at 1048 down 1.07 or -0.10%.
NASDAQ is at 3660 down 9 or -0.25%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3118 down 11.55 or -0.37%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been sideways with a negative slant and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 103.61 and 106.24 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 106.09.
Brent crude is trading between 106.61 and 108.32 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 108.20.
Gold fell from 1316.11 earlier to 1304.51 and is currently trading up at 1313.50.
Dr. Copper is at 3.309 rose from 3.242 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.22 and 80.97 and is currently trading up at 81.16, the bias is currently positive.
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Written by Gary